propeller
Vol. II · No. 196 · wednesday, april 15, 2026

propeller.picks

Daily player-prop analysis from an eight-agent stack · Published continuously from the terminal

live — analyzing tonight’s slate
NBATATUM O 27.5+5.3%·NHLMATTHEWS O 3.5+6.1%·MLBJUDGE O 1.5 TB+4.8%·NBAJOKIĆ O 11.5 REB+3.9%·SOCCERHAALAND O 3.5 SOT+4.2%·NHLPASTRNAK O 2.5 SOG+3.7%·MLBSOTO O 0.5 HR+5.5%·NBALILLARD O 4.5 AST+3.2%·NHLMCDAVID O 3.5 SOG+4.4%·MLBBETTS O 1.5 TB+3.8%·NBATATUM O 27.5+5.3%·NHLMATTHEWS O 3.5+6.1%·MLBJUDGE O 1.5 TB+4.8%·NBAJOKIĆ O 11.5 REB+3.9%·SOCCERHAALAND O 3.5 SOT+4.2%·NHLPASTRNAK O 2.5 SOG+3.7%·MLBSOTO O 0.5 HR+5.5%·NBALILLARD O 4.5 AST+3.2%·NHLMCDAVID O 3.5 SOG+4.4%·MLBBETTS O 1.5 TB+3.8%·
Today’s leadNBA · 9:30PM ET

Tatum's shot volume has outgrown the line

by the propeller agent stack · updated 8 minutes ago

Tatum is averaging 24.6 shot attempts over his last six games against defenses ranked below fifteenth in opponent wing efficiency. The market has yet to adjust — the posted line sits a full point below our model expectation, creating a +5.3% edge at the current −108 price on DraftKings.

Jayson Tatum BOS
points · over 27.5 @ DraftKings (-108)
+5.3%
edge vs market
Matchup
Usage
Pace
Minutes
Injury
HitRate
NoVig
l20:
15/20
Read every pick tonight→
+2.3u·+1.1u·−1.0u·+2.3u·+0.9u·push·+2.3u·−1.0u·+1.8u·+1.1u·+2.3u·+1.1u·−1.0u·+2.3u·+0.9u·push·+2.3u·−1.0u·+1.8u·+1.1u·+2.3u·+1.1u·−1.0u·+2.3u·+0.9u·push·+2.3u·−1.0u·+1.8u·+1.1u·
Section 02

The evidence

57.8%

Verified win rate across 3,367 graded NFL player prop picks during weeks 8–16 of the 2024 season. Breakeven at standard −110 juice is 52.4%.

nothing cherry-picked. full ledger public.

View the full ledger→
Recent graded · sample of 10result
  • NBAKyrie Irvingover 24.528win
  • NFLA.J. Brownover 72.594win
  • NHLConnor McDavidover 3.55win
  • NBANikola Jokićover 9.57loss
  • MLBAaron Judgeover 1.52win
  • SOCErling Haalandover 2.53win
  • NFLPatrick Mahomesunder 274.5283loss
  • NHLAuston Matthewsover 4.56win
  • NBALuka Dončićover 43.547win
  • MLBJuan Sotoover 0.51win
Section 03

The system

i.

Eight agents argue over every prop

Each player prop is analyzed independently by eight specialist agents: matchup, usage, pace, minutes, injury, hit rate, advanced stats, and no-vig market price. Every agent returns a score between zero and one hundred from the OVER perspective, plus a plain-English rationale.

Agent weights are calibrated against backtested outcomes. The matchup agent carries the most weight in the NFL stack; the injury agent dominates NBA. The weights are public and tunable — no black box.

matchup
5.4
injury
4.0
dvoa
3.0
line movement
2.3
no-vig
1.2
hit rate
1.0
advanced
0.6
volume
0.6
ii.

The weights are tuned against reality

Twice a month we run a backtest across the last ninety days of graded picks. A Bayesian optimizer sweeps the weight space for each sport and publishes a calibration delta: which agents earned more weight, which earned less.

This is why the NBA injury weight is twice the NFL injury weight. The system noticed. The calibrations are committed to the repository with their backtest reports attached.

Last optimizationApril 6, 2026
nba · injury3.8→4.0
nfl · matchup5.2→5.4
mlb · ballpark2.4→2.0
nhl · no-vig3.5→4.0
iii.

Every prediction is graded, public, and permanent

When the game clock hits zero, every prediction from the previous slate is auto-scored against actuals. Results flow into a public ledger that never gets edited or curated.

You can sort the ledger by sport, by confidence tier, by stat type. You can see our worst months alongside our best. Nothing disappears.

picks graded3,367
months tracked9
strong tier win rate62.1%
worst single week42.3%

Try before you subscribe

Three tools, live on this page.

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Bet Sizer

Kelly Criterion, fractional

68%
52%85%
On a $1,000 bankroll¼ Kelly
4.5u
$42.95
Model: 68%
Market: 52.4%
+15.6% edge
Every prop. Sized automatically.

Correlation Checker

Parlay risk analysis

3-leg parlay
  • 1Tatum Points OVER 27.5BOS
  • 2Brown Points OVER 22.5BOS
  • 3Mitchell Points OVER 25.5CLE
Pairwise correlation36% avg
  • Tatum–Brown
    78%
  • Tatum–Mitchell
    15%
  • Brown–Mitchell
    15%

Tatum + Brown are on the same team — highly correlated. If one misses, both likely miss.

Check any parlay before you bet.

Track Record

Every pick, graded in public

71%
win rate
PickConfActualResult
TatumPTS O 27.5
7331W
OhtaniTB O 1.5
683W
MatthewsSOG O 3.5
715W
HaalandGoal O 0.5
690L
SchefflerTop 10
643W
SGAPTS O 31.5
6634W
JudgeHR O 0.5
610L
View all 3,367+ graded picks
Section 04

The terms

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Research and analysis only. We do not accept wagers, operate as a sportsbook, or guarantee outcomes. 21+ only, please bet responsibly.

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